Ukraine’s economy, hit hard by the COVID virus and the lockdown measures imposed to curb it, could undergo growth as high as 10 percent in the second quarter after five successive quarters of decline, both the government and analysts say.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture forecasts predicts that Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by more than 7 percent year-on-year in Q2 after a decline in the first quarter. It said growth would continue through the third and fourth quarters.
The ministry said figures for 2020 showed an industrial decline of 5.2 percent year-on-year, while the transport sector saw a 14.3 percent decline. The figures showed construction reported a 4 percent increase.
A Reuters poll showed the economy would rebound sharply to 10% growth in the second quarter of 2021, provided the government goes ahead with easing COVID lockdown restrictions.
According to the median forecast of Ukrainian analysts polled by Reuters, gross domestic product will shrink by 0.5% year-on-year in January-March, but then grow 10.2% in the second quarter from a low base.
The rebound in the second quarter is rooted partly in the low base from 2020, when the economy shrank 11.4% in April-June as pandemic restrictions were especially tight.