The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised up its outlook for the economies of the South Caucasus and Central Asia in 2021, predicting that growth would be stronger than it initially expected, though called the recovery “bittersweet”.

“Forecasts are subject to high uncertainty reflecting risks associated with the future path of COVID-19 infections, possible worsening of external conditions and weaker growth in trading partners,” the EBRD said in its Regional Economic Prospects report.

The economies of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) are expected to grow 3.6 percent in 2021, up from 2.8 percent projected in June, and 2.9 percent in 2022, almost the same as predicted earlier, reflecting strong outturns in the first half of the year, though with signs of momentum slowing in the third quarter.

“Uncertainties stem from the future development of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine uptake, the recovery of global demand and future energy prices,” the EBRD said.

The outlook for economies in Central Asia was also revised up, though the expectations for recovery are far from uniform. The region is expected to grow by 4.9 percent in 2021 and 4,8 percent in 2022, up from 4.5 percent projected in June for both years, thanks to the continuation of expansionary policies, favourable commodity prices and buoyant external demand for the region’s key exports and
surplus labour.

Below are economic growth forecasts by country:

ARMENIA

GDP growth is projected to recover in 2021 to 5 percent and more strongly in 2022 – 5.3 percent.

AZERBAIJAN

Azerbaijan’s economic growth is projected at 4 percent and 3.2 percent in 2022.

GEORGIA

Georgia’s economy is projected to recover in 2021, growing by 7.5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2022.

BELARUS

GDP growth is projected to recover to 2 percent in 2021 and 0.2 percent in 2022.

MOLDOVA

Moldova’s economy is projected to expand by 7 percent in 2021 and 4 percent next year.

UKRAINE

Ukraine’s economy is expected to expand by 3.5 percent this year and at the same level in 2022.

KAZAKHSTAN

Economic growth is expected to rebound in 2021 – the economy is expected to grow 3.6 percent followed by 3.8 percent growth in 2022.

KYRGYZSTAN

GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2021 and 5 percent next year.

TAJIKISTAN

Economic growth is projected at 6.5 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2022.

TURKMENISTAN

The economy is expected to expand by 6.3 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022.

UZBEKISTAN

GDP growth is projected to recover to 6.8 percent in 2021 and 6 percent next year.